Analysis For Oscar Pools: Audio Categories
In this entry, we will be going over the likely winners for the categories of Sound, Original Score, and Original Song.
It has been said by many in the film industry that audio quality is more important than the picture. It may initially sound counterintuitive, given that film is a visual medium, but trust me, you are far more likely to have a negative reaction to a crisp image with middling sound quality than the opposite.
It’s reasonable to say that a lot of the nuance in these categories goes underappreciated.
Best Sound
Sound mixers and editors don't really get their due in this industry. Sure, you expect any behind-the-camera talent to get less attention, but movie buffs (myself included) are much more likely to know the names of several cinematographers or art directors, but few––if any–– sound designers. I challenged myself as I was writing this and the only name I could muster without Google is Ben Burtt, who is famous for the lightsaber hum, the ‘pew pew’ laser blast, and the steadfast Wilhelm Scream.
The craft is underappreciated for the same reason that this is one of the categories to call: it’s very nebulous to most people. Unlike other aspects of a movie such as acting or writing, if the sound designer is doing her job well, you probably won’t pay much mind to it. It has to either be bad or call a lot of attention to itself for you to leave the theater talking about the sound. And this is true not just of audiences, but of many film industry professionals who don't understand the process.
This is why the Academy’s sound branch making the decision to consolidate the two sound categories (Editing and Mixing) into one, one might assume this was to placate to the larger voting body who may not understand the distinction.
For the record: the stated reasoning was the two categories having “too much overlap in scope” and that checks out. Many recent films have won both awards.
All of this burying of the lead is relevant to what I think is a pretty easy call Best Sound.
The probable winner is:
Sound of Metal — Jaime Baksht, Nicolas Becker, Philip Bladh, Carlos Cortés and Michelle Couttolenc
So, the fact that this movie has the word in its title definitely makes it the default choice of that Academy voter who doesn't watch all the movies but wants to vote anyway. Fortunately, that's not the most important reason. Though, the fact that it deserves to win isn't either.
The Sound categories nominees are voted on by the 440ish members of the sound branch. The winner, however, is voted on by the entire body of the Academy, many of whom are about as oblivious to what makes good sound design as random moviegoers.
Take actors, who are represented in the Academy's largest branch by far — around 1100 out of the Academy's roughly 6300 — as an example. Actors are reasonably equipped to opine on the quality of a film's direction or its screenplay. They may not write or direct, but they read a lot of scripts and take a lot of direction. However, it would be reasonable to assume that any given professional actor has never had an extended conversation about sound design. It's simply not part of their job. Actors — and this is true for other branches — can be expected to recognize bad sound in a film, but probably can't parse out what makes it go from good to great. Or moreover: have an informed opinion on which of two great sound designs is “better”.
So, what generally happens with the sound awards is that the voters switch out the words “best” with “most” when evaluating who to vote for. Which movie has the most sound? Generally, the answer is not an indie drama. It’s a war film, effects-heavy sci-fi/fantasy, or a film with car chases, or sometimes a music biopic. Recent winners of both sound categories included Inception, Hugo, Gravity, Mad Max: Fury Road, Dunkirk, and Bohemian Rhapsody.
Movies made with a lot of money tend to do well.
What makes the borderline experimental sound design of Sound of Metal the one to beat, despite it being considered low-budget, is how integral the sound is to the story itself.
The film concerns Riz Ahmed’s Heavy Metal drummer losing his hearing, and the audio of the film itself dips in and out of his perspective, so we hear what he is hearing when he is losing his hearing, totally deaf and only able to “hear” through vibration, and finally (spoiler) the obnoxious metallic filter he “hears” through after he gets implants.
Unlike other drama films where the sound is an afterthought or a Star Wars film where the sound is memorable but basically just “noise”, it's impossible to leave Sound of Metal without the sound leaving an impression on you. It will be one of the things you would talk about after watching it.
The sound design being so tied into the drama that makes this film compelling gives Academy voters something to hang their hat on when they vote and when they want to sound like they have an informed take at cocktail parties.
If I had to pick a potential upset, I’d go with Disney/Pixar's Soul (Ren Klyce, Coya Elliott, and David Parker) because of how lovingly the music is tied into the film's themes and plot. Not to mention the otherworldly ambiance in “The Great Before”.
Mank (Ren Klyce [again], Jeremy Molod, David Parker [again], Nathan Nance, and Drew Kunin] is here because of its near capturing of the sound of old Hollywood that it's paying homage to. That might even be enough to sway the nostalgic Academy in a weaker year.
The Tom Hanks romps News of the World (Oliver Tarney, Mike Prestwood Smith, William Miller, and John Pritchett) and Greyhound (Warren Shaw, Michael Minkler, Beau Borders, and David Wyman) are technically excellent but unlikely to leave an impression in the same way these other nominees are.
Bottom line: don't be cute with this one. Sound of Metal is the head-and-shoulders favorite.
Best Original Song
This is a weird category. It’s not horribly consequential, the Academy mainly seems to keep it around as an excuse to have live performances at the ceremony, the music branch specifically keeps it around to compel studios to keep paying songwriters for the chance of a freebee nomination, and it’s generally pretty predictable.
Sure a lot of great tracks — “Somewhere Over the Rainbow”, “Lose Yourself”, “Skyfall” a ton of Disney songs from the 90s my generation won't stop singing, — but it’s not like it’s a bellwether. A Best Picture Winner hasn't won this award since Slumdog Millionaire's “Jai Ho” in 2009. Half the time the songs that win this award don't even play until the credits. It’s kind of silly that this award generally gets around 15 minutes of screen time at the ceremony, more than any award. It’s plain stupid that I will probably write more for this category than for Original Score. Pot and kettle.
Anyway, the easiest way to determine who’s going to win this award is to ask which one is hot at the moment. Is the song on the charts? It’s got a good shot. Is the writer/singer a rising star? Did they appear in the movie itself? The movie being good helps, (but isn't necessary if the song works). As does the song being worked into the story of the film in a noticeable way, but nothing helps more than buzz around the creative talent.
The probable winner is:
“Speak Now” — Music and lyric by Sam Ashworth and Leslie Odom Jr.
From One Night in Miami…
Leslie Odom Jr. — who co-wrote and sings “Speak Now” — is hot right now. He broke out as the man who shot Lin Manuel-Miranda in Hamilton, a role for which he beat out Miranda for the Best Actor Tony. He is also nominated for Best Supporting Actor in the same film for his spot on performance as singer Sam Cooke. Leslie had a better 2020 than most.
The Academy probably wishes that they could give him an Oscar for his stirring rendition of Cooke's “A Change Is Gonna Come”…
But, they obviously can't do that. But this is the next best thing. The song itself has similar themes to Cooke’s masterpiece, tying into Civil Rights struggles that were relevant then and still plague this nation to this very day. It’s depressing that a movie set in 1963 can feel so timely in this way. But there's also something oddly touching about hearing these two great songs back to back. Two artists divided by decades finding poignant verses to speak to the issue and illicit a deeper response.
Not to say that the Academy isn’t going to give Odom Jr. and his writing partner, Sam Ashworth, this award in part for the cynical calculation of it being “politically correct”. But, I’d like to think that some of the voters will see this piece of art as excellent on its own merits, a good companion to the movie, and a powerful reflection on our nation's struggle for equality that elicits a call to action. Speak up. Now.
Most likely upset:
“Io sì (Seen)” — Music by Diane Warren; lyrics by Laura Pausini & Diane Warren
From the Life Ahead
The first nominated song to be fully in Italian from a fully Italian movie. This might put the song at a disadvantage. But this song has a solid chance for an upset for the simple reason that the Academy loves to give Awards to people to whom they should have given Awards already.
American songwriter Diane Warren has been at this for a while and has written a ton of songs you've gotten stuck in your head.
She got her first nomination for this award for “Nothing’s Gonna Stop Us Now” (performed by Starship) in 1988 and has since then been nominated a total of 12 times. No wins.
Her other nominated tracks include “Because You Love Me” and by Celine Deon, “How Do I Live” by LeAnne Rimes, and “I Don’t Want to Miss a Thing” by Aerosmith.
I list the artists she wrote for and not the films the songs appeared in because the songs themselves left a significantly bigger cultural footprint than the movies they appeared in. It is genuinely kind of ridiculous that she hasn't won this award already.
Dianne Warren, as we all do, is getting up there in years, might get this award by virtue of deserving it a dozen times over for other music. “Io sì (Seen)” — which won the Golden Globe for Best Original Song — is a beautiful song in its own right, which gives the Academy just enough wiggle room to give Warren an apology Oscar.
Next up…
“Fight for You” — Music by D’Mile and H.E.R.; lyrics by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
From Judas and the Black Messiah
Another powerful song with themes relevant to both the political climate of the time the film depicts and our own time. The Academy has made it clear from this year's nominations that it's interested in giving accolades to depictions and homages to black civil rights struggles. “Fight for You” doesn't have as clear a path to victory because Leslie Odom Jr. is simply much more likely to be on Academy voter's minds. Though, it is worth noting that Judas and the Black Messiah did get the Best Picture nomination while One Night in Miami… got snubbed.
“Hear My Voice” — Music by Daniel Pemberton; lyrics by Celeste and Daniel Pemberton
From The Trial of the Chicago 7
Looking back, this has been a pretty good year for vaguely worded ballads sung by young black singers pleading for change, given context by their association with a movie depicting a historical civil rights struggle. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is the most serious Best Picture contender represented in this category, but the song itself doesn't share in that hype.
“Husavik (My Hometown)” — Music and lyrics by Rickard Göransson, Fat Max Gsus & Savan Kotecha
From Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
An aggressively sincere ballad to cap off an irreverent Will Ferrel comedy making fun of the Eurovision Song Contest written by actual Swedes who’d probably kill to win said contest. Just crazy enough to work. Probably not this year though.
Best Original Score
A movie's score is obviously an essential part of what makes a movie what it is. Whether you barely notice it or you leave the movie humming an iconic theme, a good score does a lot for a movie.
The main historical thing I would note about this particular category is that the phrase “Less is more” does not apply here. Subtle scores that are effective at eliciting a mood but are meant to go mostly unnoticed by the audience (i.e. The Sixth Sense)don't do well in this category. Big, operatic, and catchy is what tends to win Oscar gold. There's a reason we all love John Williams.
The probable winner is:
Soul — Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross and Jon Batiste
Dual nominees Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, known for their collaborations with David Fincher, lead the pack with their new age score to Pixar's latest opus. In a collaboration with jazz musician John Batiste, the score jumps in and out of the real of diegesis (the sound is “diegetic” if it exists in the world of the movie, such as a live performance. The Cantina Band is star wars is diagetic, Darth Vaders theme isn't), Souls is the kind of score that every composer wants to make. One that plays into every aspect of the film; theme, the actual plot, mood, etc.
Reznor and Ross are also nominated for a very different, Bernard Herrmann inspired score for David Fincher's old Hollywood homage Mank. Its doubful that this will lead to any splitting of the vote, so much as it will lead Academy voters to see their names a lot.
Reznor and Ross are a familiar presence to the Academy, Batiste himself is well known for his band's performances on Late Night with Stephen Colbert. Pixar has won this award a few times. So, they got name recognition down. Finally, this film and its music have received essentially universal acclaim from critics and peers. It’s got all the political advantages along with the consensus that it’s the most deserving. It’s gotta be Soul.
It seems like a done deal, but here are the others arranged by likelihood of an upset….
Minari — Emile Mosseri
Emile Mosseri is a first-time nominee. Minari has been consistently getting nominations for its score, so there's some traction.
News of the World — James Newton Howard
James Newton Howard is on his 9th nomination without a win. So, his elegiac score for Paul Greengrass’s epic western wouldn't be out of step with the Academy's history, just current trends.
Da 5 Bloods — Terence Blanchard
Jazz musician Terence Blanchard delivers another soulful score in the otherwise overlooked Da 5 Bloods. The Academy is clearly not as high on this movie as other people, as it did not get any major nominations.
Mank — Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
It may seem counterintuitive to put Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross in first and last place, but if the Academy is going to give this dynamic duo the Oscar this year, it would be a weird choice to do it for Mank, rather than the score that has received much more unambiguous acclaim.
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Check back in tomorrow for more predictions in preparation for Oscar Sunday!
